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Michael D. Setty

The price of gasoline any potential rebound in auto ownership rates in the U.S. will determine this, methinks.

It also will be amusing to see the new Tea Party Republican Congress in the U.S. hopefully twist in the wind of public opinion while they try to cut transit funding in the face of skyrocketing gasoline prices. Certainly we will hear more "drill, baby, drill" nonsense, too.

JJJ

I think a huge part of it is the technology bit.

30 years ago, if you were 17 and wanted to be social...you had to drive to hang out. Now? You can skype, facebook, play your friends online at games etc. There's no social stigma to staying home and playing medal of honor online against your buddies.

And for when you do leave the house? Driving the car requires 100% of your attention. Letting someone else drive (the train) gives you time to text, read blogs, etc. Every time I ride the subway, it's amazing to look around and see 90% of the people in the train using some form of technology. The other 10% are reading the free paper.

But that takes time to develop. If you live in suburb A and work in suburb B, you wont start taking the once an hour bus. You're also less likely to pack up your furniture and fit it into a smaller urban home.

But if you just finished college and entered the job market, you may be more willing to move to a city where there is a subway system. And you won't have a dining room set that decided how big your house needs to be.


People always talk about how "americans love to drive". It's simply not true. Tell someone who drives 100 miles a day that you can give them a free chauffeur for a year. Trust me, they won't say no. Sure, it's enjoyable to drive up the windy mountain road....but for day-to-day drives, almost everyone would prefer to have someone (or a robot) take the wheel while they actually used the time productively.

Alon Levy

JJJ, I don't think it's the socialization bit. Before cars were widespread, if you were 17 and wanted to be social, you'd walk to hang out with your friends in your dense urban neighborhood.

Brent

Somewhat related, a recent "New Yorker" had a long article about increased efficiency causing more energy use, as people consume the efficiency by, say, buying two cars or driving sportier ones. The article didn't discuss the practical effect of too many cars, nor the impact of more roads, nor how driving time affects driving habits. The author instead seemed to believe that fuel consumption will continue climbing, perhaps forever.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/12/20/101220fa_fact_owen

JJJ

Alon, before cars were widespread? Why does that matter. VMT increased in the 50s, 60s, 70s 80s and 90s.... all eras lacking in the portable technology sector, but big on suburban living.

Leigh Holcombe

Considering the level of sprawl that many of the cities of the developing nations are experiencing, it's not surprising that their use of cars is also increasing. And of course, more cars leads to more wealth and more development, which leads to more cars.

Alon Levy

JJJ, it matters, because VMT also increased in the 20s and 30s.

CroMagnon

It seems almost inevitable that we would reach a saturation point in automobile use and ownership. It would be strange if we didn't. There are only so many people to spend so much time driving a car through so much space.

Unfortunately, our (the US at least) economy has been dependent on our ever increasing automobile ownership and usage and roadbuilding that to enter a flat or declining auto use is going to require a potentially LONG period of adjustment or "correction" as the dismal science people say (or maybe it's just the finance people...)

Nicholas Barnard

JJJ - its funny, but since I sold my car, (I've moved to using a combination of transit, walking, car-sharing, and taxis, in roughly that order.) I enjoy driving much more.

Sure there are times when I've got a Zipcar just to run an errand and driving is a chore, but much of the time I really enjoy it. (Okay and grabbing a sportier car is fun too. I'll admit to being incredibly unenvironmental and grabbing a Volvo S40 to just driving around the city all night for the fun of it...)

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