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Alon Levy

Can't you use modeling to find people's revealed preferences? I'm not so sure about local transit, but with HSR, SNCF's projections use calibrated values of price elasticity, travel time elasticity, value of time calculations, and induced demand expectations.

Jarrett

@Alon. Modeling extrapolates unknown future preferences from revealed preferences observed in the past. When we speculate about future patronage on a new high-speed rail line by citing the patronage of existing ones, we're doing the same thing. Modeling is just a computerized aggregation of that same kind of speculation.

The elasticities that modeling uses are indeed based on revealed preference, but this does not reduce the fundamental uncertainties involved in guessing what people would do in the future based on what other people have done in the past.

Aaron M. Renn

It wasn't clear to me from this point, but were you attempting some type of conjoint analysis here?

Chris

More interesting for me is whether the authorities are actually going to implement a programme based on the findings of your report?

I've worked a lot in 'evidence based policy', but in the UK at least a lot of it just seems to be "do what we want and worry about evidence later", so I'm understandably a bit cynical.

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